Determine the 10-year risk of hard ASCVD, i.e., myocardial infarction, stroke, or death due to coronary heart disease or stroke.
ASCVD Risk Calculator (2013 ACC/AHA)
This tool calculates the 10-year risk of a first “hard” atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event (nonfatal myocardial infarction, CHD death, or fatal/nonfatal stroke).
Interpretation of 10-Year ASCVD Risk Score
The calculated percentage represents the likelihood of having a heart attack, stroke, or other cardiovascular event within the next 10 years for an individual who is currently heart-attack- and stroke-free.
- Low Risk: < 5%
- Borderline Risk: 5% to 7.4%
- Intermediate Risk: 7.5% to 19.9%
- High Risk: ≥ 20%
Disclaimer: This calculator is intended for educational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Risk estimates should be discussed with a healthcare provider in the context of a comprehensive clinical evaluation.
References
- Goff DC, Lloyd-Jones DM, Bennett G, et al. 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines. Circulation. 2014;129(25_suppl_2):S49-S73.
- Muntner P, Colantonio LD, Cushman M, et al. Validation of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort risk equations. JAMA. 2014;311(14):1406-15.
How to interpret the result (quick guide)
- Low risk (<5%) – Emphasize lifestyle optimization.
- Borderline (5–7.4%) – Consider risk-enhancing factors and shared decision-making.
- Intermediate (7.5–19.9%) – Discuss starting statin therapy and tightening BP control per ACC/AHA guidance.
- High (≥20%) – Statin therapy is generally recommended; intensify risk-factor management.
References
- 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk—derivation and validation of the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). AHA Journals
- ACC/AHA ASCVD Risk Estimator (web app)—official tool and risk category cut points. tools.acc.org+1
- EBMcalc implementation notes—explicit PCE coefficients (S10, MeanTerms, and all term multipliers) used above. ebmcalc.com
- ClinCalc PCE overview—scope, inputs, and practical notes on use. clincalc.com
Safety note: This calculator supports clinical conversations but doesn’t replace clinician judgment, individualized risk-benefit discussions, or local guideline updates (e.g., CAC scoring for borderline/intermediate risk).
